Recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace

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Good Monday and the heat is on in-regards-to the weather and to our Real Estate Market. Prices continue to rise, as does inventory and does days on market. To some that is worrisome, to others it is just a seasonal trend but to me it spells opportunity.

Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the 22 business days ending June 25th. Source; OC Register, 7/22/2018.

Home Prices
Resale Homes +5.3%, Resale Condos +4.1% and New Home Sales +15.8%
All totaled, OC home values are up +6.4% versus last year
Median OC home price is $742,500 up versus one year ago (ALL TIME HIGH)
$1,000,000 plus homes represent 43.4% of all OC listings

Sales Volume
Resale Homes -.8%, Resale Condos -5.5% and New Home Sales +4.5%
All totaled, OC sales volume is up -1.4% versus last year
Home sales volume is 3,769 down slightly versus one year ago
Inventory is at 6,579 up slightly from one month ago
OC Average days on market; 81 days (59 days just 1 year ago)

Interest Rates
30-year fixed Mortgage rate is 4.50%, down versus one week ago
15-year fixed rate is 4.00%, down versus one week ago
Average Home Payment is $3,530.74 up versus one year ago
ARM’s represent 18.5% of all mortgages

Did you Know?
US home ownership is at 64.2%
California home ownership is 55.2%
OC/LA home ownership is 51.9%, up from 50.1% versus 1 year ago
Riverside/San Bernardino home ownership is 61.2%, up from 61.0% VLY
California led the nation in 2017 with lowest vacancy rate at 8.3%
There were 37,881 homes sold in Orange County in 2016
It takes a $162,950 a year income to buy an OC median priced home?
614 homes sell every hour in the United States!

Facts
California median home price is $526,000
OC median home price is $742,500
LA median home price is $588,000
Ventura median home price is $559,000
San Diego median home price is $557,000
Riverside median home price is $381,000
San Bernardino median home price is $333,000
Millennials represent the largest homebuying audience

Trends
OC Rental prices average $1,939 a month! +29% versus 2010
LA Rental prices average $1,940 a month! +39% versus 2010
IE Rental prices average $1,334 a month! +29% versus 2010
OC home prices have risen 6 consecutive years
OC Has 8 zip codes in the top 100 for priciest homes sales in the Nation!
Only 1.19% of all OC properties currently listed as distressed
Only 21% of all OC earners can purchase a home

Forecast
Chapman University forecasts a 5.6% price increase for OC in 2018
Fullerton University forecasts a 5.6% price increase for OC in 2018
Metro-study and other research companies forecast a 3.2% in OC for 2018

If you’re looking for the best Orange County Realtor® contact Danae Aballi: Primarily serving the communities of: Corona del Mar, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa and Laguna Beach.
Thank you to: Robert E. Toffel of  WFG Title for emailing me this recap.

How’s The Market – Episode 1 (6/27/2018)

 

 

Strategies for a shifting market – emerging buyer trends. Top 4 things you should know as of 6/30/2018. Each week I’ll give you a market update.. the number 1 question I always get is, “How’s the Market?” so I’ll answer that each and every week! In today’s episode:

1) Buyer’s attitudes are different than 2 years ago. They’re stepping into the driver seat, and their approach isn’t as desperate. They know they’re paying top dollar, and while the realize buying is a smart option, they’re not going to just lay down. They’re tuned into value, and want a turnkey property. They’re simply a little tougher on the seller now.

2) Don’t be an “Online Lead”. You can certainly start your search (for an agent) online, but choose your agent via a face to face consultation to choose the best! Online leads get treated as a statistic which is only 3% ever buy, and they’re usually not pre-qualified, and will not buy until 12-18 months. Online leads don’t get as much love as a real client who they’ve met in person.

3) Give an agent exclusivity, and they’ll give you 110%. Agents with an exclusive client will give you their all. Their customer service will rise to the top, and you’ll get them to dig up pocket listings, door knock, mail letters, whatever you need them to do.

4) You owe it to yourself to hire the best! Excellent negotiator, someone who knows their craft, and who will put in the energy to be your advocate!

Closing thoughts: As we enter this market shift, you can start your search online, but team up with the best and take the opportunity seriously. There’s opportunity everywhere if you (or your agent) know where to look.

An Email from lender, Jay Carr

I received this email from a lender I work with, Jay Carr. Good info about the California Real Estate market so I’m sharing with you all. Enjoy and let me know if you have any questions.

I’m passing along a chart you may find interesting.  It’s OC Median Home Price Over Time .

With home values increasing  year over year since the big downturn in 2008 I was curious what the overall improvement in values has been over a long period of time. I’ve been in this business for over 20 years, and prices are much higher than when I started, but I was wondering if the increases are reasonable given expectations of appreciation in Orange County of 5%-10% a year. I downloaded the median prices of Orange County single family homes since January 1990 until today from the California Association of Realtors (CAR) site and compiled a graph.  Then I calculated the annual increase over the past 28 years.  It is just 4.775%.  That includes a pretty flat 1990’s market and includes the “bubble” from about 2002 thru 2007 – which is obvious on the graph.  I also did the math from 1997 – when the market started gradually improving to today, and the annual increase was 7.1%.  Then looked at the recovery from 2009 to today where we would expect the biggest increases, and that period of time was  7.8% .  That period has several ups and downs which would be expected in a recovery, but it levelled out to normal in about July 2013.  From July 2013 to today the annual increase is just 4.3%.

What this helped confirmed for me is that, although over a long period of time OC real estate values have increased quite a bit and have been a boon for OC homeowners,  the overall market today is on track with reasonable expectations of property appreciation.   That’s not to say we wont see prices level off or even drop slightly in the next 5 years before continuing their upward trend, but it does make it clear we are not in another “bubble”.   I analyzed other financial market statistics that support this, and am happy to share those too.  This graph I found most useful though. Median Price OC 2018.05

 

A video of Jay and Danae: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5Na3jsNcY8jrCsUvCMnW4g